Martingale vs Status Quo Trap

To forecast the future, they use some methods. One of them is Martingale. Under the assumption of martingale, the recent one is the best predictor to forecast the uncertain future. However, in the behavior finance, it's just the status quo trap to predict no change from the recent past. Even though both of them are similar, one think that it's one of the good methods but the other think it a psychological traps.